Insights
Field notes, with the working shown.
What we are reading in the markets we work in, and the mistakes we watch people make in each of them. Every figure is sourced. Where we are guessing, we say so.
- United States · Land The lot shortage ended. Most people are still pricing like it didn’t. Finished-lot supply in the US has loosened for seven straight quarters. What that does to a land deal you underwrote in 2022.
- Colombia · Residential Medellín is not one market. It is about nine. Prime neighbourhood pricing in Medellín spans roughly three to one. Buying the city average is how foreign capital gets hurt here.
- Worked example · Land The split that looked good and wasn’t. A worked example of a four-lot exempt split where every number was right and the deal still lost money. The error is made on day one, every time.